5 Comments
Jul 8Liked by Fictitious Capital

This is very well written note. My only point of disagreement would be that, as someone who is doing business in Pakistan, I see some area's of the country crumbling away, but I do see in a majority of circumstances lots of young people learning less from religious books and more from Watching Friends, House of the dragon and freelance work for people in Europe/America most of the time. I see these issues all the way in the Rural areas... and countries like China, Saudi, India all behind the scenes are pressuring the country to deregulate and liberalize trade which will happen soon so its not that pessimistic short-term/

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author

I hope you'e right but from what I see, the country tops the risk index across most dimensions (e.g., ecological, economic, etc.)

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Yes it does but in economic, the single biggest issue is the IPP power agreements the gov. signed due because of their single buyer model in energy. Cost of Electricity at market rate is same as India but due to indexation requirement of IPP is at 150% of market. Most likely what will happen, and I won't disclose my source but its family, is Chinese readjusting those to market in return for tax free mining grants which even the military now absolutely wants to stop importing raw materials from abroad. The 6-9 months will be tough but gov knows that all countries...US,China, India, UAE,Saudi.... want gov to deregulation of economy so they can invest downstream..... it will happen simply because their is no choice and the military will force the gov. to do that.

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Jul 8Liked by Fictitious Capital

As always, you have crafted a brilliant, organised, erudite and articulate breakdown. Many people across the world have presented and discussed these topics for decades and it will take many more before enough people understand what's happening.

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author

Thank you, much appreciated :)

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