Hi, I see a lot of startups and alternative ideas failing. Prices are rising and demand is falling. Don't you think that's a bit too optimistic, even considering the initial bearish trends and consolidation?
In my opinion, AI will not be able to find even partial real scalable monetization. And robots will not justify themselves, due to increasing costs and a deflationary spiral. IMHO
Excellent breakdown of the copper thesis. The White House declaration in July about copper being essential to manufacturing and national security pretty much telegraphs where this is going, and the 25% supply-demand gap by 2040 is wild considering we're supposed to price these things in years ahead. I've been tracking the nickel situation too and it's interesting how oversupply narratives can create asymmetric setups when geopolitics enters the chat, especially with Indonesia controlling 60% of supply. The regime shift framing makes sense, feels like we're at that point where mainstreem still thinks commodities are boring even though the fundametals are screaming.
Your last point is the biggest thing I'm thinking about. The fundamental story is clear, the only question is how much of it is priced in, how crowded are these trades, etc. Especially in industries that are cyclical, where substitution and supply increases typically follow high prices.
But maybe this time it's different? That's my thesis at least.
Very interesting and timely read! With gold prices rising, seems like our south Asian grandmothers are doing a better job at beating the market 😁 I look forward to the next piece on ETFs!
Thought v hard about it. Ended up with like 55-60% probably that it goes down rather than up. I have a little exposure but couldn't justify being a big theme.
Fair enough. Its hard to do fundamental analysis on crypto especially as a multidecade theme. Niche VC market. Except maybe bitcoin. If gold looks good, bitcoin will probably do well too.
Hi, I see a lot of startups and alternative ideas failing. Prices are rising and demand is falling. Don't you think that's a bit too optimistic, even considering the initial bearish trends and consolidation?
Too much volatility and irrationality ahead.
The best investment is fresh water.
Which part is optimistic?
In my opinion, AI will not be able to find even partial real scalable monetization. And robots will not justify themselves, due to increasing costs and a deflationary spiral. IMHO
Oh yeah that theme maybe. I think it largely depends on China + the upside potential is underpriced.
Excellent breakdown of the copper thesis. The White House declaration in July about copper being essential to manufacturing and national security pretty much telegraphs where this is going, and the 25% supply-demand gap by 2040 is wild considering we're supposed to price these things in years ahead. I've been tracking the nickel situation too and it's interesting how oversupply narratives can create asymmetric setups when geopolitics enters the chat, especially with Indonesia controlling 60% of supply. The regime shift framing makes sense, feels like we're at that point where mainstreem still thinks commodities are boring even though the fundametals are screaming.
Your last point is the biggest thing I'm thinking about. The fundamental story is clear, the only question is how much of it is priced in, how crowded are these trades, etc. Especially in industries that are cyclical, where substitution and supply increases typically follow high prices.
But maybe this time it's different? That's my thesis at least.
Very interesting and timely read! With gold prices rising, seems like our south Asian grandmothers are doing a better job at beating the market 😁 I look forward to the next piece on ETFs!
Hahaha I was told that by my own family and it really made me think about this more seriously 😂
No crypto?
Thought v hard about it. Ended up with like 55-60% probably that it goes down rather than up. I have a little exposure but couldn't justify being a big theme.
Fair enough. Its hard to do fundamental analysis on crypto especially as a multidecade theme. Niche VC market. Except maybe bitcoin. If gold looks good, bitcoin will probably do well too.