Very interesting and timely read! With gold prices rising, seems like our south Asian grandmothers are doing a better job at beating the market 😁 I look forward to the next piece on ETFs!
Hi, I see a lot of startups and alternative ideas failing. Prices are rising and demand is falling. Don't you think that's a bit too optimistic, even considering the initial bearish trends and consolidation?
In my opinion, AI will not be able to find even partial real scalable monetization. And robots will not justify themselves, due to increasing costs and a deflationary spiral. IMHO
Thought v hard about it. Ended up with like 55-60% probably that it goes down rather than up. I have a little exposure but couldn't justify being a big theme.
Fair enough. Its hard to do fundamental analysis on crypto especially as a multidecade theme. Niche VC market. Except maybe bitcoin. If gold looks good, bitcoin will probably do well too.
I've been skeptical of that thesis for about 5 years now. Been a big fan of BTC, but it's never performed like a safe-haven asset; it's always been a risk-on asset. It's puzzling to me why it lags risk assets in 2025, but I don't seewhat the next big driver is.
Also, the institutionalization + govt involvement is a bad sign imo.
You can read/hear my thoughts on BTC more generally here:
Your last point is the biggest thing I'm thinking about. The fundamental story is clear, the only question is how much of it is priced in, how crowded are these trades, etc. Especially in industries that are cyclical, where substitution and supply increases typically follow high prices.
But maybe this time it's different? That's my thesis at least.
Very interesting and timely read! With gold prices rising, seems like our south Asian grandmothers are doing a better job at beating the market 😁 I look forward to the next piece on ETFs!
Hahaha I was told that by my own family and it really made me think about this more seriously 😂
Hi, I see a lot of startups and alternative ideas failing. Prices are rising and demand is falling. Don't you think that's a bit too optimistic, even considering the initial bearish trends and consolidation?
Too much volatility and irrationality ahead.
The best investment is fresh water.
Which part is optimistic?
In my opinion, AI will not be able to find even partial real scalable monetization. And robots will not justify themselves, due to increasing costs and a deflationary spiral. IMHO
Oh yeah that theme maybe. I think it largely depends on China + the upside potential is underpriced.
No crypto?
Thought v hard about it. Ended up with like 55-60% probably that it goes down rather than up. I have a little exposure but couldn't justify being a big theme.
Fair enough. Its hard to do fundamental analysis on crypto especially as a multidecade theme. Niche VC market. Except maybe bitcoin. If gold looks good, bitcoin will probably do well too.
I've been skeptical of that thesis for about 5 years now. Been a big fan of BTC, but it's never performed like a safe-haven asset; it's always been a risk-on asset. It's puzzling to me why it lags risk assets in 2025, but I don't seewhat the next big driver is.
Also, the institutionalization + govt involvement is a bad sign imo.
You can read/hear my thoughts on BTC more generally here:
https://x.com/fictitious_cap/status/1872367011835338939?s=20
https://x.com/_DannyKnowles/status/1890377998567694391?s=20
Agree with your taken on money origination. Bitcoin standard is not a sure bet, unless you go authoritarion and its a lose lose to everyone.
https://x.com/Outdoors199/status/2006345801229029450
I totally agree it doesn't act like gold as safe haven asset.
Saw the tweet: exactly!
Your last point is the biggest thing I'm thinking about. The fundamental story is clear, the only question is how much of it is priced in, how crowded are these trades, etc. Especially in industries that are cyclical, where substitution and supply increases typically follow high prices.
But maybe this time it's different? That's my thesis at least.