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Dec 1, 2022Liked by Fictitious Capital

I personally feel like you have really done it all here. From using interestingly funny blips to these really entertaining cartoons, which you made I guess, you really knocked this out of the park! Good job! It was really fun to read this. Looking forward to more!

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Nov 22, 2022Liked by Fictitious Capital

Great read, loved the “think about that…” regarding Covid-19 energy use blip. Looking at other blips they all seemed to come in recessions, which were then “cured” by looser monetary policy (in the us, which is the main reserve currency and has outsized impact on the world)

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Absolutely! Given the current system, getting that chart to move higher year on year is literally what our life depends on.

But it’s going to be increasingly tough/messy if you think about it in conjunction with newsletter #1 about deglobalization.

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I’d love to here your analysis on the impact bitcoin “mining” is having on energy markets. I see a lot on the scale of usage, but how is that impacting market price, raw and generated transfer logistics, and extraction?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/business/bitcoin-mining-electricity-pollution.html

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Good question! I wrote about Bitcoin mining and the grid a year ago (doesn’t answer your questions directly but I think there’s definite misunderstanding in mainstream media about how energy systems in general work, particularly related to waste/stranded energy & flexible loads).

https://medium.com/@stanfordblockchain/beyond-the-fud-cryptos-role-in-clean-energy-86e50c99fd2c

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Mar 21, 2023Liked by Fictitious Capital

Great piece!! Would love love to hear your thoughts about what a "just energy transition" looks like for the African continent, and how continental leaders and the private sector should think about this. As an African myself, I do feel "some type of way" about the restriction to use "transitional fuels" such as natural gas, even though we haven't peaked in economic growth & we've contributed less than 5% of current CO2 emissions. We do care about the climate globally, but 600m of the 700m people without access to electricity are in sub-saharan africa - and access to climate financing on the continent to boost renewable energy hasn't been quite as smooth!

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Thank you!! And great question. I’ve been thinking about this a lot and have yet to find a way that realistically reconciles ecological constraints with socioeconomic development (keeping in mind geopolitics, Justice, etc.)

My analytical response is that I don’t think there’s an (easy & cheap) scientific way to “leapfrog” past FF and just go to renewables. Housing, food, infra, etc will all need FF because they’re special (see my latest piece on oil) even if renewable energy can provide electricity. Ideally the Global North has to consume less FF so GS can consume more.

My emotional response is that, as with Pakistan for example, these countries should be looking to improve welfare asap, which means using FF. This for two defensible reasons: 1) GS has barely contributed to this crisis (as you said); 2) per capita energy consumption in the GS is so low that it doesn’t significantly move the needle.

So with that risk-reward, I think GS countries should use whatever they can find to improve welfare. There’s no way they can lead the way on decarbonization.

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